The Week In Numbers

 Written by Chris Young


Public Affairs Account Manager Chris Young looks back on what this week’s polls may mean for the electoral map of Scotland after the General Election.

Scottish politics was dominated this week by a bombshell poll by Tory peer Lord Ashcroft forecasting sweeping gains for the SNP and premature ends to the careers of some of Scotland’s highest profile MPs.

The survey of 16 seats - primarily Labour held but pro-independence – predicts a wipeout for Labour reminiscent of the Conservative whitewash of 1997, making the prospect of an overall Labour majority across the UK ever more unlikely.

If replicated across the country, the surge would take with it the careers of several of Scotland’s heavyweight MPs, with Lib Dem Danny Alexander and his Labour namesake Douglas the pre-eminent names under threat.

But as Lord Ashcroft himself noted, his poll is merely a snapshot of opinion and not a prediction.  Nevertheless, if his forecasts are accurate, then there may no longer be such a thing as a safe Labour seat north of the border.

The biggest headache for Labour is how to match the well-oiled and motivated SNP machine, funded in no small part by its nearly 100,000 members.

Additional Scottish General Election Polls this week: (YouGov/Times) – SNP (48%), Labour (27%), Conservative (15%), Lib Dem (4%), Others (8%)




By Chris Young, 3x1 Public Relations, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Scotland