What does a Trump sequel mean for everyone else?

Donald Trump has become the 47th President of the United States after beating incumbent vice president Kamala Harris in a blowout – becoming the first Republican candidate to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004. But what does Trump’s second stint in the Oval Office mean, both at home and abroad?

What does it mean for the US?

Trump’s 2024 campaign was light on the policy side – but this didn’t stop him promising those who gathered to hear his victory speech that his administration would deliver a “golden age of America.”

Women’s rights were already curtailed hugely in Trump’s first presidency through the overturning of Roe v Wade (which removed the US-wide constitutional right to abortion), and this is a trend we’ll likely see continue with the pursuit of an even more socially and economically conservative agenda in the next four years. Abortion has been a key domestic issue in the campaign, and many have speculated Trump favours an outright ban on these services across the US, despite huge levels of domestic and international opposition. For further reading, see: the Project 25 Playbook – a blueprint for a Trump presidency, authored by some of the president-elect’s closest colleagues.

Many voters were convinced to support Trump by his pledge to drive down inflation and make America affordable again. His economic policy is built around trillions of dollars in tax cuts, a cull of red tape, and a massive crackdown on illegal migration through the deportation of one million immigrants, which he believes will ease the pressure on America’s affordable housing market. Trump’s isolationist stance has already been reflected in a strengthening dollar and an all-time high on the US stock market as investors race to back Tesla and cryptocurrency, to the detriment of the European markets.

What does it mean for the Democrats?

The Democratic Party failed to recognise that Joe Biden should have been a one-term candidate from the get-go, and that potentially contributed to costing them the election. Like many incumbent governments, the huge global increases in inflation – which is an association you never want to be made with your government – have pushed them aside. They now need to regroup – but after such a devastating result it’s likely that key players have already started to play the blame game.

There’s also an argument that the Harris/Walz campaign focussed too heavily being anti-Trump, rather than selling their own message about what they would do to make the lives of ordinary Americans easier and more affordable. The Biden presidency did little to control the narrative around the factors contributing to high rates of inflation across the entire globe – not just the USA – and that no doubt put the Democrats on the back foot, benefitting Trump and the Republicans.

What does it mean for the rest of us?

It’s clear that Trump’s election will have a profound impact on the trajectory of the US, but his influence will mean sweeping changes for the rest of the world on political debate, the economy, the climate emergency, and foreign policy.

The politics

The last time Trump took office we saw a wave of charismatic populist leaders take power across the globe. 2024 has been a huge year for elections, but with major economies like Germany holding parliamentary elections in 2026, we could see Trump’s influence – which previously propelled the likes of Bolsonaro into power in Brazil - be revitalised with the instalment of more like-minded governments across the globe.

Closer to home, the new UK Government won’t exactly find an ideological ally in Trump: the comments now foreign secretary David Lammy made about the president-elect as a backbench MP, are not a great start for the special relationship, although Keir Starmer met with Trump in September and is said to have “established a good relationship”. Starmer will need to learn from Biden that if living standards across the UK don’t rise at pace, that he could become a one-term PM as the right rallies following Trump’s huge win.

All eyes will be on Nigel Farage – Trump’s self-styled best friend in the UK – as he looks to shore up support for Reform UK over the coming parliamentary term, perhaps leveraging his very own special relationship to do so. There is now a real possibility that Trump’s success will embolden him and his supporters (including Elon Musk) trying to influence politics in European nations, including the UK – something the Trump campaign would be all too quick to decry as “election interference” the other way around.

International trade

When Trump sat down to look back on his first presidency, he made one regret clear: his failure to push through tougher policies against the US’ allies. Speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago in October, he said the US “cannot be taken advantage of any longer, in trade, in the military… to me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariff’.”

This is bad news for businesses across Europe who count the US as one of their key export partners. Expect to see the new administration push through tariffs against some of Europe’s top exports, including cars, pharmaceutical products, and electronics. On the campaign trail, his promise of a blanket tariff of at least 10% on all foreign-made goods and up to 60% on Chinese goods sparked concerns of a renewed trade war with China – which could have as big an impact on the UK economy as Brexit.

Foreign policy

One of the first things Trump announced when he took to the stage at Mar-a-Lago to declare his victory was that he will be a president who ends wars, not a president that starts them. His first presidency was in some ways characterised by an incredible reluctance to spend US dollars abroad. He continues to hold this view and recently lauded Ukrainian president Zelensky the “greatest salesperson in history” for his ability to consistently secure funding from the US to continue pushing back Russia’s attempted expansion.

He’s promised to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in his first days in office, but his relationship with Vladimir Putin and dim view of Zelensky mean this might not end on favourable terms for the Ukrainians – a real cause of concern for European states who don’t want to see Russia continue to expand its territory and limitary threat across the continent.

Trump’s scepticism of NATO nearly resulted in him pulling the US out of the treaty in 2019. This is a position he hasn’t shifted on since, and with the US accounting for two third of NATO’s defence spending, he could push other members to increase defence spending as high as 3% of GDP – a considerable increase from the 2.3% the UK currently contributes which could, again, have massive implications for the UK’s economy.

Climate

Keeping with the theme of Trump’s scepticism, the next president believes that “climate change is one of the great scams of all time.” Expect to see Biden’s climate-positive policies rolled back and the US once again withdrawing from the Paris climate accords, causing headaches across the globe as the biggest economy in the world aggressively pursues fossil fuel extraction. In this campaign, he vowed to expand Arctic drilling and attacked electric cars – which may prove to be a point of contention with supporters like Elon Musk.

What now?

If we take Trump at his word, this could be a rocky four years for the west. His commanding majority from the American people has given him a mandate to govern as he sees fit when he takes office on 20 January 2025. But will he follow through on campaign trail promises, or choose to take another path?

Scott Wilson.

Policy + public affairs manager.

Send us an email or give us a call on 01412210707

Follow 3x1 on Instagram and LinkedIn.