Programme for Government analysis: a lack of ambition for Scotland

Normally, ahead of big budget decisions or policy announcements, governments are at pains to manage the public’s expectations. Better to under-promise and over-deliver than vice versa. But for the Scottish Government, it seems, this year might be the exception.

In the shadow of confirmation from the finance secretary of budget reductions amounting to around £500 million, first minister John Swinney announced his government’s legislative programme for 2024/25. And, sadly, there seems to be little on the ground for many to be excited about.

There are, of course, several important headline commitments.

A big health warning before reading, some of these commitments are a continuation of spending from the previous year, and not an announcement of new funding or policy. Details of spending plans will be announced by the Scottish Government during the Scottish Budget on December 4.

Child poverty

There is a heavy focus on eradicating child poverty, including further support for women through pregnancy and £16 million of funding to help parents back into work. As an acknowledgment that tackling child poverty goes hand in hand with defeating family poverty, there is a significant announcement on building new affordable housing – a £600 million budget.

The economy

The Scottish Government intends to spend £1.9 billion on regional economic development, as well as sector-specific support such as Scotland’s screen sector, which the government hopes will reach its target of £1 billion GVA by 2030. Holyrood will also see the introduction of a bill that will reform the nature of commercial leases, ensuring they automatically continue beyond their tenancy period.

Climate change

There will be £500 million funding to help leverage private sector investment in offshore wind projects – which would boost economic growth, create jobs, and contribute to long term renewable energy commitments. Included in the list of proposed bills for the year is climate change legislation that establishes a carbon budget approach to emissions target setting.

Despite scaling back on their short-term targets, it remains the Scottish Government’s official position that Scotland will achieve net zero climate change emissions by 2045.

Health

As for the NHS, there will be 20,000 ‘procedures’ a year carried out in National Treatment Centres to help bring down waiting lists, as well as the establishment of a sixth cancer diagnostic service. The Programme for Government also commits to £120 million in funding to improve mental health services and a 50% increase in residential rehab beds by the end of this parliamentary term.

Justice

The Scottish Government will review modernising the criminal justice system, while simultaneously reviewing laws around abusive domestic behaviour. There will also be a proposed new law, criminalising misogyny. However, the cold hard reality of the state of the nation’s public services is laid bare with the proposal of a new law changing the rules around early prisoner release due to the rising prisoner population.

Running down the clock

Tory leader Douglas Ross criticised the Scottish Government’s announcements, accusing both Labour and the SNP for mismanaging public finances, leading to cuts in almost every budget area. He also criticised the Programme for Government for not including any mentioning of tackling drug and alcohol harm, even after a confirmed rise in drug-related deaths in Scotland last year.

Meanwhile Labour leader Anas Sarwar accused the first minister of “running down the clock on the last 18 months of the parliament”, referencing the 2026 Holyrood election, where he and his party hope to take power.

Budget background

The Scottish Budget is due to be announced in December this year, however, the finance secretary took Holyrood’s first day back from the summer break to give a ‘pre-budget fiscal statement’. This is where Shona Robison confirmed the Scottish Government would need to make savings of around £500 million to balance the books.

The SNP have accused spending reduction announcements from Labour’s Rachel Reeves for Edinburgh being forced to make tough decisions, while the Scottish Fiscal Commission confirmed the Scottish Government’s commitment to unbudgeted public sector pay increases are largely the cause for the current state of public finances.

The result is a Programme for Government that has its hands tied and, as a result, lacks ambition. There’s little to be giddy about as budgets across every government department are squeezed.

One thing is looking increasingly certain, if the SNP government can’t bring about a feel-good factor in the next year or so, the electorate will hand the keys to Bute House to Labour (possibly in coalition with the Liberal Democrats). There is still time to change the political narrative, but budgetary restrictions make that a burdensome task.

However, the finance secretary has an even bigger headache in the immediate future. The announcement of cuts and scaling back on key policies, such as extending free school meals to primary 6 and 7s, has led to the Scottish Greens indicating a further breakdown in cooperation with the SNP government. The SNP governs as a minority in Holyrood and requires the votes of at least one other party to get legislation and budgets through. If the majority of MSPs vote down the SNP’s budget at the start of next year, we could be looking at an early Scottish election in spring.

This Programme for Government may well competently manage the situation, but it’ll win no hearts or minds across the country.

Lee Robb.

Policy + public affairs strategist.

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