Will Kemi Badenoch be the next prime minister?

The Conservative Party has elected its new leader, putting an end to a process which began back in July, following the party’s devastating and historic loss at the UK general election.

From one historic event, to another, Kemi Badenoch is the first black leader of a main UK political party – and the first ethnic minority woman to lead a political party anywhere across these islands. She was elected following a round of voting by Tory members, where she received 53,806 votes (56.5% total votes cast), against former-immigration minister Robert Jenrick’s 41,388.

So, who is Kemi Badenoch?

Born in London, she is the daughter of a GP and a physiology professor. She grew up in Nigeria and the United States, before returning to the UK at 16. Her background is in IT engineering, working for RBS Group before going into financial consultancy at Coutts.

After having briefly served as an assembly member on the London Assembly between 2015-2017, she was elected to the House of Commons as MP for the (now former) Saffron Walden constituency in the 2017 snap general election under Theresa May.

A supporter of Brexit in the 2016 EU Referendum, Badenoch used her maiden speech to the Commons to state that the leave vote was “the greatest ever vote of confidence in the project of the United Kingdom.”

In her seven years as an MP, Badenoch made a name for herself as an outspoken and independently minded politician. She would not shy away from challenging personal criticism against her and demonstrated clear talent in parliamentary debates. Her talents were so widely regarded among Conservative circles that she was tipped as a possible contender in the party’s 2019 leadership election – following the resignation of Theresa May – having sat in the Commons for just two years.

Under Boris Johnson’s leadership, Badenoch was quickly promoted from junior minister for children and families to minister of state for “levelling up communities”. In a joint statement with four other ministerial colleagues, Badenoch resigned from Johnson’s government in July 2022 over the handing of the Chris Pincher scandal – part of a wave of resignations that would topple the Johnson premiership.

She first stood to be leader of the Conservatives in 2022, though as a relatively unknown junior minister, was knocked out in the fourth round of voting. Liz Truss appointed Badenoch as secretary of state for international trade, her first cabinet position and a post she retained less than 50 days later, when Rishi Sunak took the keys to Downing Street.

Fast forward to 2024, Badenoch is now Conservative leader, and therefore the leader of His Majesty’s most loyal opposition – so what are her politics?

Badenoch has done a lot of work painting herself as a conviction politician, there’s certainly an air of Thatcher about her. She speaks broadly about setting the tone of conservative politics and has criticised recent conservative government administration of “talking right, but governing left”.

She is on the political right of the Tory party, favouring a reduced state where government plays a much smaller role in the lives of people and businesses.

She takes a hardline view on immigration, quoted as saying “not all cultures are equally valid”, during this year’s leadership election. She wants to implement a “better integration strategy” for migrants to the UK, which focuses on “British values and culture.”

Badenoch describes herself as a “gender critical feminist”, when it comes to LGBT+ rights and equality. She describes trans women as “men” and has suggested that gender-affirming healthcare for trans people should be included in an overall ban on conversion therapy for LGBT+ people.

A prime minister in waiting?

The Conservatives experienced the greatest defeat in their modern history at the 2024 general election. Aspiring to be the party of power after the next general election is ambitious at the very least.

However, this isn’t too dissimilar a story from Labour’s over the past five years – having experienced a historic defeat under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, now the party of government with 411/650 seats in the Commons under Keir Starmer. So it’s possible she could find herself in Downing Street one day, however, where Badenoch positions her party over the next five years will be crucial.

Firstly, she needs to unite her parliamentary party – only around a third of Tory MPs voted for her in the final round of MP voting. James Cleverly (former home secretary) who came third in the leadership race, has ruled himself out of taking part in the shadow cabinet. Cleverly also gained the support of around a third of his parliamentary colleagues, so there are some clear divisions that need to be addressed.

During her victory speech, Badenoch spoke of mistakes made in previous governments and that the Tories had “let standards slip”. She also spoke of the need to win back voters who had abandoned the party at the polls.

Throughout the leadership election, her tone had been geared more towards winning back voters who had turned to Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, on the basis that the Tories hadn’t been right wing enough – and this may well be her problem.

Labour’s rocky start to government gives the Tories an unprecedented early opportunity to win back support. A well-communicated appeal to the centre ground could see the Tories win back votes from Labour and the Liberal Democrats. A shift to the right to win over Reform voters and Badenoch might find herself alienating a much larger pool of voters in the centre.

It's possible that, as leadership candidate, Kemi Badenoch positioned herself further to the right to win the support of Tory members, and that she could strategically fight for the political centre ground as we get closer to a general election in five years’ time – very similar to the story of Keir Starmer and the Labour left.

Historically, UK Governments are elected by centrist voters – an undeniable fact which Badenoch and the team she assembles around her over the next weeks and months will need to consider carefully if they are serious about taking the Conservatives back to power.

Lee Robb.

Policy + public affairs strategist.

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